2013 Draft Preview: Power Forwards

2013 Power Forward Ratings:

CODY ZELLER

7' 240 lbs , 20 years old

Expected Wins: 8.5

Success Probabilities:

BUST	BNCH	STRT	STAR
2%	60%	34%	4%

Comparisons:

Tyler Hansbrough, Carlos Boozer, Brad Daugherty, Wayne Simien, Adam Keefe, Bryant Reeves, Christian Laettner, Udonis Haslem, LaMarcus Aldridge, Tony Farmer

Noteworthy stats:

22.4 points per 40; 9.7 free throw attempts per 40

Comments:

Zeller moves like a freakish athlete on the court, and he recently backed up this impression in the draft combine. He posted the highest no-step vertical of all participants (the highest ever recorded for a big) and outperformed anyone within 5" and 30 lbs of him in both the quickness and speed drills. Zeller also has great handles to compliment this athleticism, making him an impossible cover for most similarly-sized players. These features come through in his ability to get to the rim and the free-throw line. Zeller's freshman and sophomore seasons rank as the 2^nd and 3^rd highest rates of rim attempts in the past three seasons (behind only Olynyk ‘13), and he made more free throws than any other NCAA big last season. Zeller also increased his efficiency away from the rim in 2013, doubling his rate of converted mid-range shots. Developing a shooting threat will be important to Zeller's NBA success, especially at the four. There aren't many NBA bigs who will be able to keep Zeller from penetrating unless they can ignore the threat of a shot.

ANTHONY BENNETT

6'7" 239 lbs , 20 years old

Expected Wins: 7.1

Success Probabilities:

BUST	BNCH	STRT	STAR
4%	60%	34%	2%

Comparisons:

Brandon Bass, Jumaine Jones, Quincy Acy, Jeff Adrien, C.J. Leslie, Lawrence Roberts, Ryan Anderson, Nikola Vucevic, Tobias Harris, Keith Van Horn

Noteworthy stats:

1.6 3pnt made per 40; 11.7 rebounds per 40; 60 TS%

Comments:

Bennett scores well on the models and draws some intriguing comparisons, but I subjectively dock him more points than any other player. Bennett has an abysmal defensive reputation and looks like a poor man's version of the Beasley, Derrick Williams, "Big Dog"... class of players who have historically done really well in my models but not in the NBA. I would have a tough time passing on him after the 10^th pick or so, but I really worry about his bust potential in the top 5.

ANDRE ROBERSON

6'7" 210 lbs , 21 years old

Expected Wins: 5.8

Success Probabilities:

BUST	BNCH	STRT	STAR
7%	70%	23%	0%

Comparisons:

Ryan Bowen, Renaldo Balkman, Josh Howard, Jerome Williams, Chris Singleton, Chuck Hayes, Damion James, Desmond Mason, Larry Owens, Jamie Feick

Noteworthy stats:

13.4 rebounds and 2.6 steals per 40

Comments:

Roberson averaged 14 rebounds, 2.4 steals, and 2 blocks per 40 with a 60 TS% as a freshman. He didn't really progress across his next two seasons, but he has at least proven that his early defensive dominance was not a fluke. Players like Roberson always slip farther than they should in the draft. Roberson is skinny for a power forward, and does not have much of an offensive game. These are legitimate issues, but athletes who produce defensive statistics like Roberson does should always have a job in the NBA. Roberson is projected to become an undrafted free agent, but it would be foolish to pass on him in the second.

TONY MITCHELL

6'8" 235 lbs , 21 years old

Expected Wins: 3.5

Success Probabilities:

BUST	BNCH	STRT	STAR
27%	68%	6%	0%

Comparisons:

Cal Bowdler, Deng Gai, Steven Smith, Robert Covington, Solomon Jones, Kyle O'Quinn, Solomon Hill, Anthony Tolliver, James Singleton, Malcolm Thomas

ROBERT COVINGTON

6'9" 204 lbs , 22 years old

Expected Wins: 1.3

Success Probabilities:

BUST	BNCH	STRT	STAR
21%	73%	7%	0%

Comparisons:

C.J. LESLIE

6'9" 207 lbs , 21 years old

Expected Wins: 1

Success Probabilities:

BUST	BNCH	STRT	STAR
16%	80%	4%	0%

Comparisons:

Hakim Warrick, Olden Polynice, Bill Curley, Buck Johnson, Dickey Simpkins, Hot Rod Williams, Jeff Adrien, Armen Gilliam, Antonio Lang, A.C. Green

ERIK MURPHY

6'10" 220 lbs , 22 years old

Expected Wins: 0.9

Success Probabilities:

BUST	BNCH	STRT	STAR
16%	76%	9%	0%

Comparisons:

Brandon Rush, Matt Bonner, Keith Askins, Kyle Singler, Demetris Nichols, Chris Copeland, Scott Padgett, Chandler Parsons, Chris Johnson '12, Cuonzo Martin

JACKIE CARMICHAEL

6'9" 241 lbs , 23 years old

Expected Wins: 0.7

Success Probabilities:

BUST	BNCH	STRT	STAR
16%	80%	5%	0%

Comparisons:

Andrew Nicholson, Greg Anderson, Mark Bryant, Sharrod Ford, Brian Grant, Tony Massenburg, Louis Amundson, Ryan Humphrey, Aron Baynes, Mike Scott

RICHARD HOWELL

6'8" 250 lbs , 22 years old

Expected Wins: 0.4

Success Probabilities:

BUST	BNCH	STRT	STAR
11%	84%	5%	0%

Comparisons:

Derek Hood, Anthony Miller, Harold Jamison, Darnell Jackson, Ben Coleman, Jeff Adrien, Andre Brown, Miles Plumlee, Jamie Feick, Mark Madsen