2013 Draft Preview: The Big Board

2013 NBA Draft Overview:

Here is the official "big board" ranked by performance on the "expected peak wins" model (I need to think of a better name for that... EPW?) This isn't necessarily the order I would advocate selecting players, but I wouldn't deviate without good reason.

So how does the 2013 class stack up to past seasons? To help get a sense, here are links to each of the past 10 draft classes:

2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003

Winning the lottery is a big deal. The average difference in expected value between the #1 and #2 picks is 3.6 wins, while the difference between the #2 and #3 is only 0.7 wins, the difference between the #3 and #4 picks is only 0.5 wins, and beyond that the decrease in value becomes immeasurable at a pick-by-pick resolution. In some years this difference can be very extreme. In the 2012 big board for example, the difference between first and second picks was larger than the difference between the second and sixteenth picks. This may help explain why the #1 pick often plays a significant role in the perception of a draft class' strength.

This class has a clear #1 pick, but he does not stand out as much as they typically do. The 2013 class' top value (Noel) is effectively tied for the second lowest in the past decade with the top prospect from 2005 (Bogut) and 2010 (Cousins). The only first in class who Noel clearly beats is Deng (2004). Given that the #1 pick in 2004 was actually high-schooler Dwight Howard, it is safe to say that this year's class is as weak at the top as any in the past decade. Noel certainly has "star" potential, but he is several tiers below talents like Davis, Durant, or Shaq.

Moving beyond the #1 pick, this draft does have decent depth. Four players offer a 10% or greater chance of becoming a star (Noel, Porter, Oladipo, and Burke) a distinction not held since the 2009 class, and it offers 15 players with more than 5 expected wins, something only three other classes offered. Another important feature of this draft is that it is heavy on shooting guards, a weak spot in the current NBA, and centers, a position that will always be in demand. This certainly isn't one of the great drafts, but it should offer a nice influx of talent.

Best Values:

These are the players who will be available long after my model thinks they should have been selected.

Mike Muscala - Draft Express current has Muscala lasting until pick #34. Even with his top-10 in my model, I would be hesitant to take him that early. There is a lot of risk with big men who dominate in small conferences. However, he is a great gamble in the late 1st.

Nate Wolters - White guard playing at a small school who "isn't athletic enough for the NBA." Maybe it's true, but how many athletically limited point guards can be top ten in free-throw attempts, get to the rim at a high rate, and hang 34 points on Tony Wroten?

BTW... here is how Wolters compares to another small-school point who recently had an impressive rookie season:

	2PA	2P%	3PA	3P%	FTA	FT%	ORB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
Lillard	8	50%	7.4	39%	7	87%	0.5	5.2	4.2	1.5	0.2	2.9	2.6	22.7
Wolters	11.8	49%	4.4	35%	7.6	80%	1.1	5.6	6.2	1.8	0.2	2.6	2.2	22.2

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - KCP was a better value as recently as a few weeks ago, but unless his rise up the boards continues he will be a really nice pick mid-late lottery. As a chucker who struggled to get to the rim in college he is a bit of a gamble, but he can shoot, jump, and play defense which is a rare and desirable combination.

Andre Roberson - Roberson will collect rebounds and play great defense in the NBA. He is a bit of a 3/4 tweener with minimal offensive skills, but he is still a steal in the second round.

Worst Values:

These are the players who the media and NBA decision makers seem to love, but are very difficult to make a case for based on the numbers.

Shabazz Muhammad - Adam Morrison redux

Alex Len - Has done nothing in college to warrant lottery-pick consideration, but he will be selected early thanks to his large frame. I am tolerant of reaching on "project bigs", but Len's numbers are simply too bad to justify the hype.

Mason Plumlee - Old and unproductive. The only thing Plumlee is particularly good at is draft combines.

Euros:

Unfortunately my models are only generate expectations for NCAA players. This ignores the prospects attempting to join the NBA from overseas. I don't have any special knowledge about these prospects, but that won't stop me from peeking at a box-scores and forming an opinion.

Rudy Gobert

Freakish length, but we still don't know for sure if he can play. His shot-blocking ability is impressive, but he is a surprisingly weak rebounder given his extreme length advantage. His scoring efficiency is off the charts (I don't think I have ever seen someone with a TS over 75%), but his usage is so low it is difficult to read much into.

While Rudy's website touts him as a combination of Javale McGee and Dikembe Mutombo, Alexis Ajinca is probably a better place to start looking for comparisons:

Rudy Gobert, 9'7" reach, 235 lbs, at age 20; Alexis Ajinca, 9'4" reach, 225 lbs at age 20

	Pts	2PtA	2P%	FTA	FT%	Off	Def	Asts	Stls	Blks	TOs	PFs
Gobert	14.0	7.8	74.5%	3.8	64.0%	3.7	6.4	0.6	1.2	3.4	2.6	4.3
Ajinca	16.7	10.9	51.7%	6.0	78.5%	4.6	6.7	1.8	1.1	3.4	3.5	7.8

Same age, same league, similar size, and a largely similar statistical profile. Ajinca looks more polished with some good passing and free throw shooting, but Gobert stands out with his weirdly high efficiency inside. Scouts need to determine whether that efficiency is simply a function of Rudy's role in the offense, or the result of some unique talent that he can bring with him to the NBA. If the latter, he warrants consideration very early in the draft.

Dennis Schroeder

Apparently he is really quick and has long arms.

Sergey Karasev:

Karasev is a sniper who moves the ball well for a small forward. Unfortunately, his terrible defensive numbers tell the story of an athletically challenged player who may be so overmatched defending NBA wings it doesn't matter how well he shoots.

Dario Saric

I don't know why all Croatian basketball players are scrawny 6'10" point-forwards with streaky shooting, but apparently that is just how they do things. The important question is whether Saric is the Toni Kukoc varietal or more of a Nemanja Bjelica. He is still 19 years old and doesn't offer much data to go on, but my money is on B-Jelly.

Dario Saric, 6'10", 223 at age 19; Nemanja Bjelica, 6'10", 210, at age 21

	Pts	2PtA	2P%	3PtA	3P%	FTA	FT%	Off	Def	Asts	Stls	Blks	TOs	PFs
Saric	12.8	9.3	38.7%	3.6	30.6%	4.4	50.0%	3.7	6.4	3.5	1.7	1.2	3.7	5.2
Bjelica	11.7	5.5	43.8%	3.8	34.2%	4.2	73.0%	1.6	4.3	3.2	1.2	0.7	4.5	7.0

Saric is a terrible shooter, hitting under 40% from two, under 31% from three, and 50% from the free-throw line this past season. He didn't look much better in past seasons either. Saric moves the ball around nicely, collects rebounds, and shows some competent ball-hawking, but I don't really see a place in the NBA for a bean-pole who shoots like Ben Wallace.

Lucas Nogueira

Lucas Noguiera, 9'3" reach 215 lbs at age 20; Rudy Gobert, 9'7" reach, 235 lbs, at age 20

	Pts	2PtA	2P%	FTA	FT%	Off	Def	Asts	Stls	Blks	TOs	PFs
Nogueira	16.1	9.9	67.7%	4.3	66.7%	4.9	5.1	0.8	1.4	3.3	1.6	5.5
Gobert	14.0	7.8	74.5%	3.8	64.0%	3.7	6.4	0.6	1.2	3.4	2.6	4.3

Very similar production to the more highly regarded Gobert (in a more difficult league), but he doesn't have the extreme length that is largely responsible for Gobert's hype.

Giannis Adetokunbo:

No statistics to go on, but I love the idea of Adetokunbo. I have a longstanding but completely untested theory that large hands are a strong predictor of future success. Just as jumping higher or having longer arms open up possible developmental trajectories that aren't available to other players, the ease with which players can palm a basketball to pass or handle and the length of fingers putting rotation on their shots potentially has a similar impact. In addition to enormous hands, Adetokunbo has a 7'4" wingspan and great coordination. The other thing I like about Adektokunbo is that he is billed as a versatile pass-first player (though apparently he has a decent shot) who may be able to defend point guards through power forwards. The combination of physical profile and skillset make Adektokunbo the prototype small forward... unfortunately I have no way to evaluate his likelihood of realizing that.