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JUNE 10th EDIT: Moved this back to the cover because of the new chart at the bottom of the article, that compiles all of the data and shows a few changes in the model. Go C.J. McCollum!-- EiM.
2013 NBA Draft Summary:
This post is a collection of my different draft projection models/tools and their results for the 2013 draft class. I wanted to put them all in one place where I can reference and update them in the future. Below we have two "Expected Win-Peak" models, one using a deep dataset but lacking in combine data, appreciation for the distinction between offensive and defensive rebounds, and subject to the faults of Win Shares as a catch-all player evaluation metric, and another model that includes more detailed information and uses an RAPM-based evaluation metric but only draws from players in this millennium. There is also another projection model that focuses on 'likelihood of becoming a bust/bench/starter/star" rather than projecting exact win performance. Finally, there are two different comparison model results. One looks only at the physical profile of prospects and compares them to well-known players, while the other draws on all of the available information to identify the best player-comparisons in the past 30 years.
If you want to jump right into the numbers, here is a link to the google spreadsheet with results for NBA draft prospects from 1981 to 2014.
Expected Win-Peak Models:
These models use historical data to predict how many wins a prospect will be responsible for during his best season. The methodology is based on multilinear regression. These models identify how things like college production, size, age, and level of competition helps explain the actual NBA performance of past prospects, they then use this knowledge to generate predictions for future NBA players based on how they look across those measures.
Winshare model (1981 to 2012)
The first model uses individual collegiate box-score statistics (points, rebounds, steals...), height, weight, age, and competitive context (team's rating and strength of schedule as well as era in which players played) to predict NBA "win shares" during a player's season of peak performance. This dataset draws information from players going all the way back to 1981.
RAPM model (2002 to 2012)
The second model uses individual collegiate box-score statistics (points, rebounds, steals...), measurements collected at the NBA pre-draft combine (standing reach, vertical jump...), age, and competitive context (team's rating and strength of schedule) to predict NBA "RAPM wins above replacement" during a player's season of peak performance. This dataset includes information starting with players selected in the 2002 draft.
Expected Wins | ||||
Name | WS | RAPM | AVG | |
1 | Nerlens Noel | 10.8 | 14.4 | 12.6 |
2 | Cody Zeller | 8.8 | 8.5 | 8.7 |
3 | Otto Porter | 9.3 | 7.2 | 8.3 |
4 | C.J. McCollum | 8.4 | 8.1 | 8.3 |
5 | Trey Burke | 7.4 | 8.7 | 8.1 |
6 | Victor Oladipo | 7.1 | 7.0 | 7.1 |
7 | Nate Wolters | 7.4 | 6.2 | 6.8 |
8 | Michael Carter-Williams | 5.3 | 8.1 | 6.7 |
9 | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | 6.8 | 4.2 | 5.5 |
10 | Steven Adams | 4.6 | 5.5 | 5.1 |
11 | Mike Muscala | 5.5 | 3.8 | 4.7 |
12 | Ben McLemore | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.3 |
13 | Kelly Olynyk | 5.4 | 2.3 | 3.9 |
14 | Anthony Bennett | 3.8 | 3.8 | |
15 | Andre Roberson | 4.9 | 2.0 | 3.5 |
16 | Jamaal Franklin | 2.4 | 4.5 | 3.5 |
17 | Tony Johnson | 3.3 | 3.3 | |
18 | Shane Larkin | 3.9 | 1.9 | 2.9 |
19 | Taylor Smith | 2.9 | 2.9 | |
20 | Lorenzo Brown | 2.9 | 1.7 | 2.3 |
21 | Arsalan Kazemi | 2.8 | 1.5 | 2.2 |
22 | Alex Len | 2.6 | 1.5 | 2.1 |
23 | Archie Goodwin | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
24 | Jack Cooley | 1.8 | 1.8 | |
25 | Tony Mitchell '13 | 1.8 | 1.8 | |
26 | Pierre Jackson | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
27 | Mason Plumlee | 1.1 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
28 | Ryan Broekhoff | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
29 | Ray McCallum | 2.1 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
30 | Erick Green | 2.7 | 0.1 | 1.4 |
31 | Glen Rice '13 | 1.2 | 1.2 | |
32 | Allen Crabbe | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
33 | Jeff Withey | 1.5 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
34 | B.J. Young | 1.4 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
35 | Robert Covington | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
36 | C.J. Leslie | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.9 |
37 | Isaiah Canaan | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
38 | Zeke Marshall | 0.8 | 0.8 | |
39 | D.J. Stephens | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
40 | Elias Harris | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
41 | Gorgui Dieng | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
42 | Reggie Bullock | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
43 | Deshaun Thomas | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.6 |
44 | Myck Kabongo | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.6 |
45 | Rodney Williams | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
46 | Shabazz Muhammad | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.5 |
47 | Solomon Hill | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
48 | James Ennis | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
49 | Anthony Marshall | 0.4 | 0.4 | |
50 | Richard Howell | 0.4 | 0.4 | |
51 | Adonis Thomas | 0.3 | 0.3 | |
52 | Charles Carmouche | 0.3 | 0.3 | |
53 | Vander Blue | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
54 | Jackie Carmichael | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
55 | Erik Murphy | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
56 | Phil Pressey | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
57 | Tim Hardaway Jr. | 0.2 | 0.2 | |
58 | Brandon Paul | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
59 | Trevor Mbakwe | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
60 | Colton Iverson | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
61 | Leonard Washington | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
62 | Carrick Felix | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
63 | DeWayne Dedmon | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
64 | Michael Snaer | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
65 | Seth Curry | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Bust or Star? Model
The "Bust or Star? model" is constructed from the same 1981 to 2012 dataset as the "Win Share model" above, but rather than trying to estimate a precise "peak win production" it estimates the likelihood that a player will become either a "bust", a 'bench-warmer", a "starter", or a "star".
Star Likelihood | |||||
Name | BUST | BNCH | STRT | STAR | |
1 | Trey Burke | 12% | 15% | 40% | 33% |
2 | Nerlens Noel | 4% | 20% | 56% | 20% |
3 | Otto Porter | 11% | 23% | 47% | 18% |
4 | Victor Oladipo | 15% | 31% | 38% | 16% |
5 | C.J. McCollum | 21% | 20% | 48% | 11% |
6 | Cody Zeller | 16% | 35% | 41% | 9% |
7 | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | 19% | 29% | 45% | 7% |
8 | Kelly Olynyk | 23% | 35% | 36% | 7% |
9 | Nate Wolters | 41% | 21% | 32% | 6% |
10 | Michael Carter-Williams | 41% | 24% | 29% | 5% |
11 | Shane Larkin | 41% | 29% | 25% | 5% |
12 | Ben McLemore | 27% | 40% | 28% | 4% |
13 | Mike Muscala | 23% | 20% | 54% | 3% |
14 | Anthony Bennett | 27% | 38% | 32% | 3% |
15 | Taylor Smith | 44% | 34% | 19% | 3% |
16 | Steven Adams | 25% | 43% | 31% | 2% |
17 | Jamaal Franklin | 45% | 26% | 26% | 2% |
18 | Ray McCallum | 73% | 14% | 12% | 2% |
19 | Andre Roberson | 38% | 33% | 29% | 1% |
20 | Alex Len | 44% | 34% | 21% | 1% |
21 | Pierre Jackson | 56% | 24% | 19% | 1% |
22 | Jeff Withey | 50% | 33% | 17% | 1% |
23 | Erick Green | 58% | 24% | 17% | 1% |
24 | Tony Johnson | 60% | 23% | 16% | 1% |
25 | Reggie Bullock | 54% | 30% | 15% | 1% |
26 | Archie Goodwin | 62% | 21% | 15% | 1% |
27 | Allen Crabbe | 57% | 29% | 14% | 1% |
28 | D.J. Stephens | 58% | 28% | 14% | 1% |
29 | Zeke Marshall | 51% | 35% | 13% | 1% |
30 | Myck Kabongo | 68% | 20% | 12% | 1% |
31 | B.J. Young | 72% | 16% | 10% | 1% |
32 | Jack Cooley | 51% | 31% | 18% | 0% |
33 | Arsalan Kazemi | 55% | 28% | 16% | 0% |
34 | Ryan Broekhoff | 59% | 25% | 16% | 0% |
35 | Glen Rice '13 | 62% | 24% | 14% | 0% |
36 | Gorgui Dieng | 62% | 24% | 14% | 0% |
37 | Mason Plumlee | 51% | 36% | 13% | 0% |
38 | Richard Howell | 64% | 26% | 10% | 0% |
39 | James Ennis | 68% | 22% | 10% | 0% |
40 | Lorenzo Brown | 69% | 20% | 10% | 0% |
41 | Robert Covington | 73% | 17% | 10% | 0% |
42 | Deshaun Thomas | 63% | 28% | 9% | 0% |
43 | Trevor Mbakwe | 64% | 27% | 9% | 0% |
44 | Elias Harris | 69% | 21% | 9% | 0% |
45 | Erik Murphy | 64% | 28% | 8% | 0% |
46 | Shabazz Muhammad | 65% | 27% | 8% | 0% |
47 | Jackie Carmichael | 67% | 25% | 8% | 0% |
48 | Isaiah Canaan | 75% | 17% | 8% | 0% |
49 | Brandon Paul | 75% | 17% | 8% | 0% |
50 | Solomon Hill | 72% | 21% | 7% | 0% |
51 | C.J. Leslie | 69% | 25% | 6% | 0% |
52 | Tim Hardaway Jr. | 71% | 22% | 6% | 0% |
53 | Adonis Thomas | 75% | 19% | 6% | 0% |
54 | Tony Mitchell '13 | 77% | 16% | 6% | 0% |
55 | Charles Carmouche | 81% | 12% | 6% | 0% |
56 | Colton Iverson | 62% | 33% | 5% | 0% |
57 | Vander Blue | 74% | 20% | 5% | 0% |
58 | Rodney Williams | 75% | 19% | 5% | 0% |
59 | Phil Pressey | 78% | 16% | 5% | 0% |
60 | Anthony Marshall | 83% | 12% | 5% | 0% |
61 | Seth Curry | 76% | 20% | 4% | 0% |
62 | Carrick Felix | 78% | 18% | 4% | 0% |
63 | Leonard Washington | 86% | 11% | 3% | 0% |
64 | DeWayne Dedmon | 86% | 11% | 3% | 0% |
65 | Michael Snaer | 86% | 12% | 2% | 0% |
Player Comparisons
These models use statistical information to find which NBA players make the best comparisons for each prospect. I recommend you use these to help form a picture of the player in your head and maybe help develop expectations for what the prospect needs to do in order to suceed and what paths may lead towards failure.
Statistical comparison:
This model uses the same 1981 to 2012 dataset employed in the models above. It finds the players who's collegiate box score stats, size, competitive context, and expected NBA performance were on average the most similar to each prospect. Comparisons are listed with the most similar first and the eighth most similar last.
Comp1 | Comp2 | Comp3 | Comp4 | Comp5 | |
Adonis Thomas | Jawad Williams | Keith Langford | Malik Hairston | Kevin Brooks | Kelenna Azubuike |
Alex Len | Meyers Leonard | Loren Woods | Jon Koncak | Channing Frye | DeAndre Jordan |
Allen Crabbe | Antoine Wright | Doug West | Maurice Ager | Rodney Carney | Michael Finley |
Andre Roberson | Ryan Bowen | Renaldo Balkman | James Singleton | Chuck Hayes | Damion James |
Anthony Bennett | Brandon Bass | Jumaine Jones | Quincy Acy | Trevor Booker | Jeff Adrien |
Anthony Marshall | Jeremy Pargo | Will Conroy | Diante Garrett | Ben Hansbrough | Drew Barry |
Archie Goodwin | Steve Smith | Tony Dumas | Richard Jefferson | Greg Graham | Travis Mays |
Arsalan Kazemi | Jerome Williams | Damion James | James Augustine | DeMarre Carroll | Ryan Bowen |
B.J. Young | Armon Johnson | Dell Demps | Rodney Monroe | A.J. Guyton | Cory Alexander |
Ben McLemore | James Anderson | Jeremy Lamb | Chase Budinger | Todd Lichti | Shannon Brown |
Brandon Paul | Matt Walsh | Allan Houston | Voshon Lenard | Cuttino Mobley | Travis Mays |
C.J. Leslie | Hakim Warrick | Hot Rod Williams | Al Thornton | Buck Johnson | Antonio Lang |
C.J. McCollum | Damian Lillard | Marcus Brown | Joseph Forte | Iman Shumpert | Manny Harris |
Carrick Felix | Keith Askins | Chris Johnson | Mychel Thompson | Wesley Johnson | Eric Washington |
Charles Carmouche | Jerry Smith | Oliver Lafayette | Rick Brunson | James Collins | Cuttino Mobley |
Cody Zeller | Brad Daugherty | Adam Keefe | Troy Murphy | Lorenzen Wright | Danny Manning |
Colton Iverson | Geert Hammink | Jerome Jordan | Casey Shaw | Ben Davis | Mark Madsen |
D.J. Stephens | Jeremy Evans | Tim Perry | Lavoy Allen | Duane Causwell | Marcus Cousin |
Deshaun Thomas | Jawad Williams | Jimmy Butler | Desmond Mason | Dan Langhi | Greg Minor |
DeWayne Dedmon | Mark Pope | Dan Gadzuric | Miles Plumlee | Chris Johnson | Taj Gibson |
Elias Harris | Eduardo Najera | Mike Scott | J.R. Giddens | Carl Herrera | Al Thornton |
Erick Green | Dedric Willoughby | Chris Smith | Nolan Smith | Litterial Green | Cory Higgins |
Erik Murphy | Dave Popson | Keith Askins | Chris Johnson | Lance Thomas | David Wood |
Glen Rice '13 | Kyle Singler | Tyrone Nesby | Antoine Wright | Chris Mills | Scott Burrell |
Gorgui Dieng | Ekpe Udoh | Brad Lohaus | Ivano Newbill | Eric Mobley | Miles Plumlee |
Grant Jerret | Antoine Carr | Byron Scott | Dale Ellis | Dominique Wilkins | Jeff Malone |
Isaiah Canaan | Chucky Atkins | Bobby Brown | DeJuan Wheat | Chris Smith | Tony Bennett |
Jack Cooley | Jeff Pendergraph | Jon Brockman | Mark Madsen | Loy Vaught | Michael Smith |
Jackie Carmichael | Mark Bryant | Sharrod Ford | Lonny Baxter | Ben Davis | Louis Amundson |
Jamaal Franklin | Chris Carr | Othyus Jeffers | Matt Harpring | Keith Booth | Dominique Jones |
James Ennis | Rawle Marshall | Devin Green | Gary Forbes | Dijon Thompson | Cedric Henderson |
Jeff Withey | Calvin Booth | Ekpe Udoh | Roy Rogers | Ken Johnson '01 | Keith Benson |
Kelly Olynyk | Michael Bradley | Rich King | Bryant Reeves | Will Perdue | Kirk Haston |
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Kyle Korver | Rodney Buford | Tony Delk | Richard Hamilton | Anthony Parker |
Leonard Washington | Eduardo Najera | Taj Gibson | Mark Pope | Louis Amundson | Carl Herrera |
Lorenzo Brown | Jon Barry | Kevin Pritchard | Drew Barry | Jason Hart | Eric Snow |
Mason Plumlee | Sam Perkins | Sean Rooks | Zendon Hamilton | Les Jepsen | Rich Manning |
Michael Carter-Williams | Nate McMillan | Andre Miller | Everette Stephens | Jason Terry | Greg Anthony |
Michael Snaer | Cuttino Mobley | Raja Bell | Andre Owens | Alvin Williams | Scott Haffner |
Mike Muscala | Curtis Borchardt | Jason Thompson | Nick Fazekas | Carlos Rogers | Keith Benson |
Myck Kabongo | A.J. Price | Andre Barrett | John Celestand | Jerome Allen | Jarrett Jack |
Nate Wolters | Damian Lillard | Lucious Harris | Devin Harris | Jerome Allen | Fred Hoiberg |
Nerlens Noel | Anthony Davis | Benoit Benjamin | Eddie Griffin | Emeka Okafor | Tyrus Thomas |
Otto Porter | Mike Miller | Josh Childress | Jared Dudley | Jason Richardson | Joe Johnson |
Peyton Siva | Jacque Vaughn | Chris Corchiani | Charlie Ward | Wayne Turner | Kevin Pritchard |
Phil Pressey | Jason Hart | Aaron Miles | Luke Ridnour | Michael Hawkins | Dee Brown '06 |
Pierre Jackson | Isaiah Thomas | Luke Ridnour | Dee Brown '06 | Tyson Wheeler | Andre Barrett |
Ray McCallum | Vinny Del Negro | Kiwane Garris | Jerome Dyson | Lucious Harris | Derek Fisher |
Reggie Bullock | Greg Minor | Matt Carroll | Chris Johnson '12 | Mike Hall | Anthony Morrow |
Richard Howell | Darnell Jackson | Anthony Miller | Mark Madsen | Harold Jamison | Jon Brockman |
Robert Covington | Chris Singleton | Devin Green | Scott Burrell | James Jones | Josh Howard |
Rodney Williams | Sam Young | Derrick Brown | Kevin Gamble | Chris King | Jeff Trepagnier |
Ryan Broekhoff | Rasual Butler | Wesley Johnson | Brandon Rush | Derrick Dial | Mychel Thompson |
Seth Curry | Salim Stoudamire | Dedric Willoughby | Anthony Roberson | Matt Carroll | Trajan Langdon |
Shabazz Muhammad | Kelenna Azubuike | Jarvis Hayes | Harrison Barnes | Kevin Brooks | Adam Morrison |
Shane Larkin | Darren Collison | Nick Van Exel | Adonis Jordan | Dee Brown '06 | Dana Barros |
Solomon Hill | Keith Bogans | Kris Joseph | James White | Jeff Taylor '12 | Tarence Kinsey |
Steven Adams | Ed Davis | Emeka Okafor | Tony Battie | Andre Drummond | Lorenzen Wright |
Taylor Smith | Ryan Humphrey | Cherokee Parks | Sam Perkins | P.J. Brown | Armen Gilliam |
Tim Hardaway Jr. | Joe Crawford | Maurice Ager | Dijon Thompson | Rodney Monroe | Tarence Kinsey |
Tony Johnson | Tim Hardaway | Chris Duhon | Moochie Norris | Micheal Williams | Tate George |
Tony Mitchell '13 | Cal Bowdler | Steven Smith | Anthony Tolliver | Quincy Acy | Greg Anderson |
Travon Woodall | Antoine Carr | Byron Scott | Dale Ellis | Dominique Wilkins | Jeff Malone |
Trevor Mbakwe | Mark Madsen | Taj Gibson | Eric Mobley | Louis Amundson | Sharrod Ford |
Trey Burke | Ty Lawson | Lee Mayberry | B.J. Armstrong | D.J. Augustin | Terrell Brandon |
Vander Blue | Tim Legler | Austin Rivers | Gerald Fitch | Roger Mason | Malcolm Lee |
Victor Oladipo | Josh Howard | Adrian Griffin | Laron Profit | Eddie Basden | Stacey Augmon |
Zeke Marshall | Keith Benson | Duane Causwell | Solomon Alabi | Roy Rogers | Marcus Cousin |
Physical Comparisons
These comparisons use only draft combine measurements to find the NBA players with the most similar physical profile to each prospect. These comparisons do not care how the prospect actually puts those physical tools to use relative to possible comparisons, but only how his size, length, speed, agility, and jumping ability compare to NBA players. The chart below lists the closest physical comparison for each prospect and then gives two additional measures "SIZE" and "ATHL" to help expand on that comparison. The numbers in the "SIZE" and "ATHL" give the average standard deviation difference between the prospect and the comparison in terms of size (height, wingspan, reach, weight, and bench) and athleticism (agility, sprint, and vertical) respectively. This allows you to say for instance "Ben McLemore looks physically similar to what Brandon Roy did coming out of college, but he isn't quite as big (-0.28 of a standard deviation smaller) or athletic (-0.35 of a standard deviation less athletic)".
[Note: Players who did not participate in the pre-draft combine do not have the necessary data to compute physical comparisons so there comps are left blank until those measurements become available]
Name | Comp | SIZE | ATHL |
Alex Len | |||
Allen Crabbe | Danny Granger | -0.45 | 0.21 |
Andre Roberson | John Salmons | -0.03 | -0.07 |
Archie Goodwin | Daequan Cook | -0.21 | 0.18 |
B.J. Young | |||
Ben McLemore | Brandon Roy | -0.28 | -0.35 |
Brandon Paul | Damian Lillard | 0.44 | -0.15 |
C.J. Leslie | |||
Cody Zeller | Harrison Barnes | 0.43 | -0.29 |
Dennis Schroeder | Devin Harris | -0.29 | -0.32 |
Deshaun Thomas | Caron Butler | 0.07 | -0.52 |
Erick Green | |||
Erik Murphy | Spencer Hawes | -0.07 | -0.34 |
Gorgui Dieng | |||
Isaiah Canaan | Jonny Flynn | 0.2 | 0 |
Jackie Carmichael | Terrence Jones | -0.12 | -0.15 |
Jamaal Franklin | |||
James Ennis | Josh Childress | -0.15 | 0.22 |
Jeff Withey | Spencer Hawes | -0.07 | -0.15 |
Kelly Olynyk | Brian Cook | -0.19 | -0.07 |
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Jrue Holiday | 0.2 | 0.26 |
Lorenzo Brown | Jordan Crawford | -0.02 | -0.73 |
Mason Plumlee | Jason Smith | 0.1 | -0.34 |
Michael Carter-Williams | O.J. Mayo | 0.07 | 0.1 |
Mike Muscala | LaMarcus Aldridge | -0.39 | 0.19 |
Myck Kabongo | J.J. Redick | -0.29 | 0.07 |
Nate Wolters | |||
Nerlens Noel | |||
Otto Porter | Josh Childress | 0.12 | 0.1 |
Phil Pressey | Kemba Walker | -0.2 | 0.08 |
Pierre Jackson | |||
Ray McCallum | Jonny Flynn | -0.24 | -0.24 |
Reggie Bullock | John Salmons | -0.23 | 0.08 |
Richard Howell | |||
Robert Covington | Renaldo Balkman | 0.16 | -0.29 |
Rudy Gobert | Brook Lopez | 0.08 | -0.36 |
Shabazz Muhammad | Luke Babbitt | -0.35 | 0.11 |
Shane Larkin | Nate Robinson | -0.18 | -0.23 |
Solomon Hill | Tobias Harris | -0.02 | -0.13 |
Steven Adams | Andrew Bogut | 0.2 | 0.35 |
Tim Hardaway | Tony Allen | -0.26 | -0.03 |
Tony Snell | Xavier Henry | -0.1 | 0.33 |
Trey Burke | Devin Harris | -0.15 | -0.14 |
Vander Blue | Jrue Holiday | -0.15 | 0.44 |
Victor Oladipo | Tony Allen | -0.16 | 0.41 |
Full Data:
Same numbers as above, but lumped together in one friendly image file:
To help contextualize the model results here is a link to the google document with numbers for all players in my data.