Who: Timberwolves vs. Bulls
When: 7:00 PM CST
Where: United Center
TV: ESPN
The Wolves enter Tuesday evening’s road game against the Chicago Bulls on the heels of a four-game losing streak. After an impressive overtime road win in Charlotte on December 3rd, the Wolves embarked on what was and is a brutal string of games that lead up to the Christmas Day game against the Oklahoma City Russell Westbrooks.
December 6th: San Antonio Spurs (L 91-105)
December 8th: @ Toronto Raptors (L 110-124)
December 9th: Detroit Pistons (L 90-117)
December 11th: Golden State Warriors (L 108-116)
December 13th: @ Chicago Bulls (record: 13-10)
December 17th: Houston Rockets (record: 18-7)
December 19th: Phoenix Suns (record: 7-17)
December 21st: @ Atlanta Hawks (record: 12-12)
December 23rd: Sacramento Kings (record: 9-15)
The next five games look to be three difficult matchups (@CHI, HOU, @ATL) and then two softer opponents both at home (PHX and SAC). To be fair, if the Suns and Kings are soft, the Wolves have been putty this season. If the Wolves find a new low and lose all five games, their record will be 6-23 entering the Christmas Day game.
In both the 2009-10 season and the 2010-11 season the Wolves entered Christmas Day with six wins. Respectively, the Wolves finished those seasons 15-67 and 17-65.
In case you were wondering, it's Defcon1 in Minnesota.
— Jon Krawczynski (@APkrawczynski) December 10, 2016
Games like tonight’s in Chicago hold importance if the Wolves are to deviate from their current pace of winning one in every four games. So, how do the Wolves beat the Bulls in Tom Thibodeau’s return to the South Side?
Meet the Chicago Bulls
The Bulls brought “home” Dwyane Wade and also signed free agent Rajon Rondo this offseason. Despite the NBA’s overarching movement to pace and space, the Bulls have been doing the opposite. With Wade, Rondo, and Jimmy Butler the Bulls have three players who theoretically operate best with the ball in their hands. An issue they are working through.
Another issue— Wade, Rondo, and Butler are also not great three-point shooters. Wade only made seven total threes last season in 74 games, Rondo is a career 29.1 percent shooter from deep, and Butler had a worse three-point percentage than Ricky Rubio last season, 31.2 percent.
The Bulls are compensating by taking the ball handlers out of three-point situations as much as possible. This is most notably done by almost always putting one of Butler/Wade/Rondo in pick and roll action.
That sideline weave action is one of the most frequent ways the Bulls put Wade or Butler into pick and roll. Allowing the wings to operate in the midrange where they thrive.
Rondo’s skill set is also often utilized in the pick and roll. Rather than creating pick and roll isolation for Rondo as they do with Butler and Wade, Rondo’s pick and roll’s often come in the flow of their motion offense. Allowing him to penetrate and distribute to shooters like Nikola Mirotic.
When the Bulls do not use a ball screen, the goal of their offense is still to try and find ways into the heart of the defense, creating from there. This avoids simple rotations for three-point shots. The Bulls frequently run the “Horns” set (popular in the Wolves offense) with two bigs in the high post. This Bulls play reminds me of Rubio-to-Dieng-to-Wiggins.
The Good of the Bulls
-Best offensive rebounding team in the NBA.
Remember how the Wolves killed the Warriors on the glass on Sunday? The Bulls do that every game. This could be an issue if the Wolves are again short bigs, without Nemanja Bjelica who is questionable with an ankle injury.
-Elite at the free-throw Line
The Bulls shoot 25.9 free-throws per 100 possessions converting 81 percent of those (3rd in NBA). No team has a higher percentage of their total points at the free-throw line.
-Points in the Paint
44.1 percent of the Bulls points come in the paint (6th in NBA). Offensive rebounds and a disregard for the three-point shot lead to this high percentage.
-Dwayne Wade makes three point shots this season?
After making seven total threes last season, good for 15.9 percent, this season Wade has already made 23 three-point shots and is shooting 34.3 percent from deep as a whole.
-Jimmy Butler
Somewhat quietly, Butler has put himself in the position to receive MVP votes this season.
The Bad of the Bulls
-Worst three-point shooting team in NBA
Despite Wade suddenly making threes, the Bulls make the least threes per game in the NBA (6.1) and shoot the worst percentage from three in the NBA (30.8 percent).
-Effective Field Goal Percentage
The Bulls are operating somewhat efficiently within the three-point arch, but a disregard for threes has the Bulls with the 28th best effective field goal percentage in the NBA (47.5 percent).
-Offense predicated by Wade and Butler.
If opponents can slow one or both of Butler and Wade the Bulls offense craters. Butler or Wade have led the team in scoring 22 of 23 games.
Expected Starting Lineups
Timberwolves
Ricky Rubio
Zach LaVine
Andrew Wiggins
Karl-Anthony Towns
Gorgui Dieng
Injuries: Nemanja Bjelica (questionable, ankle)
Bulls
Rajon Rondo (game-time decision, ankle)
Dwayne Wade
Jimmy Butler
Taj Gibson
Robin Lopez
Injuries: Michael Carter-Williams (OUT, wrist)
Prediction Time: Upset alert. The Wolves pick and roll defense has looked better over the past few games. If the Wolves stymie the pick and roll of Butler, Wade, and Rondo they could get win number seven. Heyo!
Wolves: 98 Bulls: 96