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Hello all,
Long-time lurker of Canis, and for my first post I wanted to write a bit about projecting the three point shooting capabilities of the draft prospects in this summer's NBA draft. I stumbled across Andrew Johnson of Nylon Calculus' three point shooting model from the previous two drafts on Twitter this afternoon, and due to having some free time after work, I decided I would use his model to project three point shooting percentages of the players in this draft.
If you'd like to read about how he created his model, the link is here. Key points:
- Andrew used two different models. The first explained about 30% of the variation in NBA three-point shooting (not great), while the second had an R-squared of 0.63 (pretty good). I computed both models, and also included an average of the two. This post from last year explains the second model. Full disclosure: I might not have the exact formula (the article linked above mentioned an age component I couldn't find, though he did list an equation on the post, so I just used the equation in the post)
- The sample size is the top 78 prospects in the Draft Express database (this link here). I used their per 40 pace adjusted statistics.
On to the model!
I used the free throw %, three point makes and attempts per 40, and three point % of the potential draft picks. Andrew does a good job in the articles listed above of why those variables are important. The results are below, in descending order based on the players' projected three point percentage based on the average of the two models:
| Name | FT% | 3PtA | 3PT% | Model 1 | Model 2 | Average |
| Buddy Hield | 88.000% | 9.5 | 45.700% | 40.479% | 40.979% | 40.73% |
| Denzel Valentine | 85.300% | 9.4 | 44.400% | 39.876% | 40.446% | 40.16% |
| Kyle Wiltjer | 85.400% | 7 | 43.800% | 38.714% | 38.575% | 38.64% |
| Malcolm Brogdon | 89.700% | 6.8 | 39.100% | 38.408% | 38.701% | 38.55% |
| Jamal Murray | 78.300% | 8.8 | 40.800% | 38.124% | 38.531% | 38.33% |
| Yogi Ferrell | 82.900% | 6.2 | 42.000% | 37.741% | 37.599% | 37.67% |
| Damion Lee | 84.300% | 7.4 | 34.100% | 37.171% | 37.637% | 37.40% |
| Caris LeVert | 78.800% | 5.8 | 45.000% | 37.526% | 37.030% | 37.28% |
| Jarrod Uthoff | 81.300% | 6.6 | 38.200% | 37.096% | 37.220% | 37.16% |
| Jake Layman | 84.600% | 5.3 | 39.900% | 37.212% | 37.050% | 37.13% |
| Kay Felder | 84.800% | 6.1 | 35.500% | 36.880% | 37.235% | 37.06% |
| Sheldon McClellan | 83.800% | 5 | 40.600% | 37.089% | 36.782% | 36.94% |
| Isaiah Whitehead | 76.000% | 7.9 | 36.500% | 36.725% | 37.112% | 36.92% |
| Melo Trimble | 86.700% | 6.4 | 31.100% | 36.541% | 37.185% | 36.86% |
| Marcus Paige | 77.400% | 7.6 | 35.600% | 36.622% | 36.993% | 36.81% |
| Malik Beasley | 81.300% | 5.4 | 38.700% | 36.639% | 36.592% | 36.62% |
| Fred VanVleet | 81.700% | 5.2 | 38.100% | 36.503% | 36.490% | 36.50% |
| Ron Baker | 78.400% | 6.9 | 34.800% | 36.306% | 36.660% | 36.48% |
| Tyler Ulis | 85.600% | 5 | 34.400% | 36.309% | 36.561% | 36.43% |
| Daniel Hamilton | 86.000% | 5 | 33.100% | 36.148% | 36.616% | 36.38% |
| Georges Niang | 80.700% | 4.7 | 39.200% | 36.330% | 36.037% | 36.18% |
| Malik Newman | 68.700% | 7.9 | 38.200% | 36.067% | 36.255% | 36.16% |
| Jaron Blossomgame | 78.200% | 4.1 | 44.100% | 36.539% | 35.690% | 36.11% |
| Anthony Barber | 86.500% | 3.7 | 36.100% | 36.118% | 36.057% | 36.09% |
| Demetrius Jackson | 81.300% | 5.5 | 33.100% | 35.771% | 36.120% | 35.95% |
| Malachi Richardson | 72.000% | 7.4 | 35.300% | 35.793% | 36.085% | 35.94% |
| Taurean Prince | 76.900% | 5.9 | 36.100% | 35.877% | 35.981% | 35.93% |
| Patrick McCaw | 76.900% | 6.1 | 35.200% | 35.820% | 35.981% | 35.90% |
| Dorian Finney-Smith | 73.300% | 6.6 | 36.800% | 35.844% | 35.952% | 35.90% |
| Danuel House | 71.500% | 8.7 | 30.900% | 35.595% | 36.173% | 35.88% |
| Wade Baldwin | 79.900% | 4 | 40.600% | 36.141% | 35.612% | 35.88% |
| Brandon Ingram | 68.200% | 6.3 | 41.000% | 35.741% | 35.558% | 35.65% |
| Dillon Brooks | 80.800% | 4.6 | 33.800% | 35.417% | 35.737% | 35.58% |
| Michael Gbinije | 66.300% | 7 | 39.100% | 35.503% | 35.451% | 35.48% |
| Benjamin Bentil | 78.200% | 5.2 | 32.900% | 35.207% | 35.533% | 35.37% |
| Josh Hart | 75.200% | 5 | 35.700% | 35.190% | 35.273% | 35.23% |
| Perry Ellis | 79.500% | 2.2 | 43.800% | 35.803% | 34.614% | 35.21% |
| Isaiah Cousins | 67.000% | 4.9 | 41.100% | 34.975% | 34.448% | 34.71% |
| Alex Caruso | 78.500% | 2.8 | 36.800% | 34.804% | 34.475% | 34.64% |
| Wayne Selden | 61.700% | 6.5 | 38.300% | 34.559% | 34.498% | 34.53% |
| Isaiah Taylor | 81.100% | 2.5 | 30.600% | 33.991% | 34.522% | 34.26% |
| Kris Dunn | 69.500% | 4.1 | 37.200% | 34.301% | 34.010% | 34.16% |
| A.J. Hammons | 70.900% | 0.5 | 54.500% | 35.683% | 32.319% | 34.00% |
| Nigel Hayes | 73.600% | 4.5 | 29.300% | 33.717% | 34.265% | 33.99% |
| Robert Carter | 74.000% | 3.4 | 33.300% | 33.927% | 34.007% | 33.97% |
| Elgin Cook | 77.900% | 2.1 | 33.900% | 33.940% | 33.920% | 33.93% |
| Malik Pope | 64.900% | 5.1 | 36.200% | 33.998% | 33.842% | 33.92% |
| Tim Quarterman | 63.200% | 5.5 | 34.300% | 33.650% | 33.763% | 33.71% |
| Henry Ellenson | 74.900% | 3.5 | 28.800% | 33.353% | 33.975% | 33.66% |
| Dedric Lawson | 70.900% | 2.8 | 35.000% | 33.537% | 33.419% | 33.48% |
| Troy Williams | 69.100% | 3.3 | 34.700% | 33.483% | 33.326% | 33.40% |
| Domantas Sabonis | 76.800% | 0.5 | 35.700% | 33.374% | 32.982% | 33.18% |
| Caleb Swanigan | 71.300% | 3.3 | 29.200% | 32.868% | 33.475% | 33.17% |
| Marquese Chriss | 68.500% | 2.5 | 35.000% | 33.096% | 32.929% | 33.01% |
| Justin Jackson | 66.700% | 4.1 | 29.200% | 32.638% | 33.150% | 32.89% |
| Jaylen Brown | 65.400% | 4.4 | 29.400% | 32.639% | 33.126% | 32.88% |
| Joel Bolomboy | 68.800% | 2.1 | 34.000% | 32.791% | 32.656% | 32.72% |
| Dejounte Murray | 66.300% | 3.6 | 28.800% | 32.297% | 32.780% | 32.54% |
| Tyrone Wallace | 64.900% | 3.7 | 29.800% | 32.326% | 32.743% | 32.53% |
| James Webb III | 68.400% | 4.4 | 22.500% | 31.898% | 33.072% | 32.49% |
| DeAndre Bembry | 65.700% | 3.7 | 26.600% | 31.907% | 32.697% | 32.30% |
| Alex Poythress | 70.600% | 1.3 | 30.400% | 32.076% | 32.435% | 32.26% |
| Gary Payton II | 64.700% | 2.6 | 31.900% | 32.149% | 32.244% | 32.20% |
| Shawn Long | 67.400% | 2.3 | 26.700% | 31.512% | 32.304% | 31.91% |
| Ben Simmons | 67.000% | 0.1 | 33.300% | 31.549% | 31.306% | 31.43% |
| Pascal Siakam | 68.600% | 0.5 | 20.000% | 29.765% | 31.686% | 30.73% |
| Stephen Zimmerman | 63.600% | 0.9 | 25.000% | 30.120% | 31.148% | 30.63% |
| Brice Johnson | 78.300% | 0 | 0.000% | 27.522% | 32.876% | 30.20% |
| Derrick Jones | 60.200% | 2.3 | 18.900% | 29.319% | 30.990% | 30.15% |
| Diamond Stone | 75.000% | 0 | 0.000% | 27.100% | 32.418% | 29.76% |
| Jakob Poeltl | 69.400% | 0 | 0.000% | 26.383% | 31.640% | 29.01% |
| Skal Labissiere | 66.100% | 0.1 | 0.000% | 26.006% | 31.181% | 28.59% |
| Zach Auguste | 62.800% | 0 | 0.000% | 25.538% | 30.723% | 28.13% |
| Deyonta Davis | 60.500% | 0 | 0.000% | 25.244% | 30.403% | 27.82% |
| Chinanu Onuaku | 58.900% | 0.1 | 0.000% | 25.084% | 30.181% | 27.63% |
| Isaiah Briscoe | 46.000% | 1.4 | 13.500% | 26.217% | 28.704% | 27.46% |
| Damian Jones | 53.600% | 0.1 | 0.000% | 24.406% | 29.445% | 26.93% |
| Prince Ibeh | 41.800% | 0 | 0.000% | 22.850% | 27.806% | 25.33% |
Key Takeaways:
- Buddy at the top is a good sign (as it shows Andrew's model likely is somewhat predictive). Both him and Denzel project to be very good shooters.
- Brogdon has gotten some love at the combine, and the numbers suggest his shooting may translate.
- Murray's by far the youngest prospect near the top. Perhaps this is why Andrew mentioned an age component in his model without including it in the equation on the post.
- Ingram only projects to be middle of the class, likely due to his poor free throw percentage. Simmons and Jaylon Brown don't project well either, unsurprisingly.
Overall, this was a fairly easy exercise, and I hope to produce some more models and/or graphics before the draft. If you found this helpful or have suggestions/concerns, or if I screwed something up (which is likely, this was the first post I made using R and converting it back to Excel might have screwed some things up), let me know.