When the 2020 draft rolls around in October, four Minnesota natives are almost certain to have their names called. As discussed on a previous podcast, Daniel Oturu (Cretin Derham Hall) and Zeke Nnaji (Hopkins) are big men prospects who are tracking to be late first round or early second round picks. At the point guard position, Tre Jones (Apple Valley) and Tyrell Terry (De La Salle) have similar projected draft ranges — though The Ringer has Terry 8th(!) on their Big Board.
Jones and Terry are the focus on my lates in my series of prospect film review pods. University of St. Thomas mens basketball coach Will DeBerg helps me look at how the two stack up in this relatively deep point guard class.
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A place I like to begin before watching the film of any prospect is with their size. Obviously, physical measurements do not define a player, but it helps me imagine how the skill sets that show up in their college film might translate to the next level.
For Jones and Terry, both of whom are not physically imposing, this is an important piece of information. Jones is almost the exact same height and weight as his brother, Tyus. But here are a list of a few other players from the past ten draft classes who measured similarly when they came out of college:
For Terry, who is listed at 160 pounds on various draft websites, finding players with his frame feels even more important. For some context, according to NBA.com’s index of measurements from the NBA combine, only nine players weighed in under 170 pounds in the past ten draft classes. Listed below are a handful of players from those classes who measured close to Terry’s height in shoes (6’2”) and weighed 170 pounds or less.
What Terry lacks physically, he makes up for with arguably the purest 3-point stroke in the class. He is of the Trae Young mold, where, in the new NBA, he cannot be dismissed out of hand on size alone. If Terry proves to be an elite shooter, it not only can work, he could thrive in the league.
To compare Terry to Young is a bit bold. I’ve come to like the Seth Curry comparison. At Stanford this season, Terry made 48 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts. Of the 190 players who attempted 100 catch-and-shoot 3-point shots this season in the NBA, Curry led the league in field goal percentage — also at 48 percent. Curry also led the league in catch-and-shoot 3-point percentage during the 2018-19 season. Even that bar seems high for Terry. But if he does reach close to Curry’s level, Terry will be in the league for a long time.
As for Jones, he pops most both on film and statistically as a defender. We go into what there is to like from the film on the podcast, but this table is an example of what sets Jones apart defensively amongst point guards in this draft class.
Given the smaller sample size at the college level and the different talent levels for surrounding teammates, there is certainly some noise in this data. But again, for Jones, the data meets the eye test.
While neither Jones nor Terry particularly stick out in Synergy’s offensive tracking data, here’s a look at how they stacked up statistically against the eleven guards who could be first round picks in the October draft.
Where do you see Jones and Terry getting selected?
Would you be interested in the Timberwolves selecting either player 16th overall (the Brooklyn pick)? Or not until the second round (33rd overall)?