The NBA on TNT Tuesday double-header is back! The 6:30 PM CT game pits Luka Dončić and the Dallas Mavericks up against the short-handed New Orleans Pelicans. Then at 9 PM CT, Stephen Curry and the defending champion Golden State Warriors tip off against recurring antagonist Chris Paul and his Phoenix Suns.
Read on for some betting tips in what promises to be a wild slate of games:
(As of 1 PM CT on Tuesday)
You can bet your favorite spread, moneyline, total or game prop over with our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mavericks (-6, -215 ML) at Pelicans (+6, +185 ML) | Total: 218.5
Dallas -6 is getting 72% of the handle (meaning proportion of the total money wagered) and 63% of the bets per VSiN, and it’s easy to see why from the Pelicans’ injury report: starters Zion Williamson (posterior hip contusion), Brandon Ingram (concussion protocol) and Herb Jones (right knee hyperextension) are all out.
An interesting wrinkle here is that the over 218.5 is receiving 61% of the handle and 75% of the bets; as we learned from Jack last week, that dynamic means the public is more confident in the over than experienced bettors. That means it may be a good call to roll with the under.
The Picks: Mavericks -6 | Under 218.5
New Orleans is simply too hampered for me to trust it in this one. Williamson, Ingram and Jones are three core pieces to the team’s identity, and while the Pelicans have great depth, I don’t see them standing up to Dončić and the Mavs without them. It’s especially harmful not to have a defensive stopper like Jones available when going up against a star of Luka’s caliber.
Along with the fact that sharps are fading the public on the over, there are a couple reasons I foresee the under hitting. I could see Dallas dominating this game from the jump due to New Orleans’ talent deficit, which would lead to an early exit for both teams’ starters. In addition, the Mavericks play the sixth-slowest pace in the league per NBA.com, and New Orleans may be inclined to match that in order to reduce possessions, again due to the talent disadvantage.
Warriors (+1.5, +105 ML) at Suns (-1.5, -125 ML) | Total: 227
Golden State +1.5 is receiving a whopping 93% of the betting handle and 83% of the bets. That indicates that the sharps are even more confident in the Warriors than the public.
It’s a similar story on the total: the over is getting 92% of the handle and 90% of the bets. These two teams play at very different tempos; the Warriors are first in pace at 110.33 possessions per 48 minutes, while the Suns are 27th at 96.81 per NBA.com. Whoever wins the battle for control of this game’s play speed will have the upper hand.
The Picks: Suns -1.5 | Under 227
These are both bets on this game being played on the Suns’ terms. It’s Golden State’s first road game of the season, their first time in a hostile environment since June. Phoenix, meanwhile, will have its home crowd at its back, which should be enough of an edge to pull out the victory.
Look for the Suns to slow things down and focus on halfcourt execution in order to keep Golden State from running up and down. It also doesn’t hurt that the average total in games between these teams last year was 211.75, well below the number listed for this game. The Warriors are playing a different style this season, yes, but I still generally give the upper hand in the pace battle to the knockdown, drag-it-out, slow-it-down team.
Player prop bets are a fun way to bet on the game within the game. It doesn’t have to be tied to the overall outcome and offer interesting looks at player vs. player and player vs. team matchups. You can find props for both of these games here.
Mavericks at Pelicans
The Pick: Jonas Valančiūnas yes double-double -265
There isn’t a ton of monetary opportunity here, but this feels like a pretty sure thing to me. Valanciunas has notched at least 10 points and 10 rebounds in all but one of his last six games against the Mavericks according to StatMuse, and he only played 25 minutes in the one game he fell short of those marks.
With so many important Pelicans front-court players out, Valanciunas will have even more responsibility than normal. Williamson won’t be there to snatch away boards, and New Orleans will need him to provide some more scoring punch. Valanciunas is already averaging 17 points and 13 rebounds through three games, and I expect those numbers to rise even higher after tonight.
Warriors at Suns
The Pick: Steph Curry o4.5 3-pointers made +105
In five games against the Suns since Chris Paul joined the team, Steph Curry has averaged 12.4 3-point attempts per StatMuse. He has made at least five threes in three of those contests, and he’s off to a hot start this season at 44.4% from behind the arc according to Basketball-Reference.
Given the Warriors’ chosen pace early in this season and the high profile of this nationally televised bout with an old foe, I think Curry is going to look to make a statement. There’s going to be plenty of chucking and shimmying from No. 30 in Footprint Center tonight.