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“Propped Up”: Analyzing Player Prop Hit Rates During an Up and Down Season

If you put your mortgage on the win total, here are a few trends that can maybe prevent you from completely losing your shirt!

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So the Minnesota Timberwolves win total of 48.5 looks a little bit shaky, and Canis Hoopus may be down a few units if things continue to shake out the say they are. While the season isn’t over, there’s more on the table future and prop wise that trends in the right direction.

With a seeming rotating cast in and out of the lineup on a nightly basis, there are a few trends with players that have seen light recently that have hit at a high rate. All lines are according to our friends over at the DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Anthony Edwards

“Point Ant” has shown parts of Anthony Edwards’ game that have merely flashed to us before, and it shows in the form of dollar signs as well.

Heading into Friday night’s loss to the Milwaukee Bucks, Edwards had hit on nearly 80% of his assist over since the Dec. 16 win at Oklahoma City. He didn’t hit against Milwaukee with only one assist, but the line is normally pretty arbitrary at five, and as long as he remains the focal point of the offense, that prop is worth looping into any daily fantasy parlays, or taking at plus odds.

Speaking of being a bigger focal point of the offense, Edwards is scoring at an extremely high clip as well. Edwards is one of the 20th in the league in terms of profitability in betting points O/Us for the whole season. Including the Milwaukee game, Edwards has hit the over in his last four games, and is 7-4 ATS since Dec. 10, the first half of the Wolves’ back to back games against the Portland Trail Blazers.


Rudy Gobert

Gobert has been incredibly inconsistent in the prop world this season as you could probably imagine, but just a couple notes on where his lines usually sit at.

90% of the time, his blocks O/U is set at 1.5, and it’s been an incredibly hit or miss bet recently. Rudy has had just one game in the month of December where he has had one block. He’s had a four-block game in the down-to-the-wire loss against the New Orleans Pelicans, but registered either 0 or 2 blocks otherwise, which rounds out to a 1.1 average in the month. Teams like New Orleans, or the second game against the Dallas Mavericks in which its an interior-heavy game would be a worthwhile play, but otherwise it’s good to look elsewhere (he’s 5 for 11 in recording 2+ blocks against teams that are top 10 in points in the paint).

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Jaden McDaniels

McDaniels has put multiple stars in jail this season from his ability on the defensive end, but his recent increased volume has shown an impact on the offensive end in hitting his props. His point totals can range on a night to night basis in terms of lines, but since Dec. 16, McDaniels has hit the over in points nearly 75% of the time.

His points + rebounds prop is also one to look at (he has hit over 70+% of the time on that as well in the same time frame). While he struggles to rebound the basketball, you can sometimes find better odds, and his point totals can cushion the amount of rebounds he needs to get in order to go over.

With the imminent return of Karl-Anthony Towns supposedly to happen sometime around mid-January, it will be interesting to see how the volume is distributed off of McDaniels, and even Edwards to some degree. But it doesn’t seem like the injury bug is getting squashed anytime soon with this team, and maybe a couple wins here and there on the margins can help the development of this team be a little more tolerable...?