What Does The Future Hold for Nickeil Alexander-Walker?

The ink on the Nickeil Alexander-Walker lifetime contract still hadn’t completely dried on an anticipated Tuesday night of basketball at Target Center when the Minnesota Timberwolves, two games over .500 after a successful California road trip, looked to make it four straight wins against the Philadelphia 76ers.

A big ingredient needed in that game needed in a recipe for the win was Alexander-Walker, who was coming off his best game as a Wolf, a 16-point, 50% from 3-point range effort in Sacramento in one of Minnesota’s best wins of the year. It seemed to be one of those moments of arrival for a perceived throw-in in the D’Angelo Russell - Mike Conley three-team trade that seemed like a highway robbery with NAW’s performance on the floor.

Alexander-Walker finished the game against the Sixers with five points on just 2-6 shooting.

It’s been a box score that’s indicative of the swingman’s up-and-down performances as a young role player for a team that’s welcomed his boost. So often he’s up; hitting shots, using his burst to get to the basket, and playing excellent defense on what feels like one through four. Sometimes, he down; and his defense is what keeps him in the lineup among questionable decision-making.

An offseason lies ahead where a decision will have to be made about the cousin of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. I’ll take a look at a couple things he brings to the table, and what I think awaits him this offseason.

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Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Defense

The most noticeable part of Alexander-Walker’s presence the seamlessly works with both the first and second units is his activity on the defensive side of the ball. He’s incredibly quick navigating around screens, and disrupts game flow with active hands. He hasn’t been one to run up steal numbers, but he does enough to be one of the better perimeter defenders on the team.

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Opposing teams are shooting 50% from inside the arc when Alexander-Walker is on the floor, and 53% when he’s out. The shot frequency at the rim is the same, and it’s clear his length and quickness are assets when the Wolves start scrambling.

However, it’s clear he still is in an adjustment period. The hard skills exist, but his defensive efficiency on the floor with Gobert and McDaniels are not good; that’s a problem. Additionally, among all two-man lineups he’s played with so far in Minnesota, he has a positive net rating with just three other players, and all are small minute sample sizes.

NBA.com

The rapport on defense has to continue to improve. But there is still a lot to like about NAW defensively that gives you encouragement that it could materialize.

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Associated Press

Offensive Activity

Funny enough, I think Alexander-Walker offensively is pretty comparative to a less polished Jaylen Nowell.

Nowell clearly has spots on the floor he can get to and confidently convert at a relatively high percentage. I’m not sure NAW is there quite yet.

However, he possesses a similar quality Nowell has in having the first step and quickness to collapse defenses, something the second unit just doesn’t possess. At times, things tend to get incredibly stagnant because of that as a consistent weakness. For awhile, while Nowell was out, Anthony Edwards was the only one that could do so, and couldn’t really leave the floor if any sort of offense was to be had.

Alexander-Walker isn’t Zach LaVine, but there are certainly glimpses that he can do it at a competent level.

While inconsistent, he’s also provided a welcomed shooting stroke. He takes less than two pull up 3-pointers per game, but connects on 42% of them; good for third on the team among players who play significant minutes.

The other side of the coin is the aforementioned inconsistency. NAW shoots 34% from 3 overall, but is just 31% on catch and shoot 3s. The most backbreaking number of all? Alexander-Walker is just 25% on wide open 3s, which is good for one of the worst on the team. For a team that already has a bugaboo shooting the basketball, that’s something that can be incredibly hard to justify.

It seems with everything in talking about NAW the common line is “he flashes, but doesn’t do it well consistently.” Rebounding and crashing the boards on the offensive end is certainly one of those.

One of the things that the Wolves loved when assuring Alexander-Walker was included in the deadline deal was his length and ability to play-make. He’s uniquely positioned in the Wolves scheme to be able to initiate and use his size to his advantage. But rebounding continues to be an issue. Statistically, he’s one of the worst rebounders on the team across a few key metrics (contested rebound percentage, rebounds per game, rebound chance percentage), getting far outpaced by Mike Conley. For a team that’s already spotty in collecting rebounds, NAW has to use his size to his advantage as a big guard and find ways to extend possessions.

Repeating the theme of this article: “he flashes, but doesn’t do it well consistently.”

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USA Today

So, What?

Alexander-Walker is a restricted free agent this offseason with a qualifying offer amount of just over $7 million. Unless something crazy happens between now and the end of the season, I’m personally not extending that and letting him test unrestricted free agency.

I’d be curious to see what other teams end up offering him. The Wolves will already be strapped for cap space this offseason, and there can’t be much they afford to use as a test. In this case, that test would be NAW playing like a $7 million per year player. I don’t currently see that happening across any metric or in meeting the eye test on a consistent basis.

There are flashes...

But there’s still a lot of development that needs to take place. I would wonder if a three year, $10-13 million deal would be of interest. Alexander-Walker is still just 24 years old, and a bridge deal into his prime to allow him some time to secure his role and sharpen up a few of the aforementioned aspects before he hits free agency as a hypothetical 27-year-old.

It seems as though he wants to be in Minnesota for the time being. With a few more consistencies, the Wolves should want the same (for the right price).