The introduction to this article might be almost the exact same to a similar one I wrote at the beginning of 2023.
Fresh off a loss to the Detroit Pistons, the Minnesota Timberwolves were essentially in no-man’s land at the turn of the year, and we still didn’t have much of an idea of what the team was, nor where they would end up come postseason time.
We have a little bit better of an idea of the latter now, but the former is still a bit head scratching. In a stretch of games since the return of Karl-Anthony Towns’ return that has run the full gambit of disaster to “this team should win a playoff series!”.
One of the more interesting storylines since the return of Towns has been the statistical distribution and the impact it has on a talented starting five. But a subplot of that; how can it impact your wallet?
A couple intriguing prop trends remain...
All lines according to our friends at the DraftKings Sportsbook.
(Editor’s Note: records do not include Sunday’s win over the New Orleans Pelicans)
REBOUNDS: Rudy Gobert & Karl-Anthony Towns
Rudy Gobert has been a complete vacuum on the boards this season, and so far Towns has shown his rust on both the defensive side and in rebounding the basketball. He had a good 14-rebound game against the Brooklyn Nets on Tuesday, but he hasn’t taken great positioning and when him and Gobert are on the floor, it seems as though the focus is primarily for Gobert to rebound the basketball and his share of the loose basketballs come when he is in running at the five.
In his last seven starts, Gobert is averaging 14 boards a game and has hit the over on five of his last 7 starts in rebounds. His odds are normally pretty stacked on the over (he was -130 to hit over 12.5 against the San Antonio Spurs), but his overall return in the last seven has been 28.7%. Definitely worth a sprinkle.
Towns, on the other hand, is 4-3 for the under, and is in tweener territory on a nightly basis here. Stay away. Mainly, I think Gobert’s rebound prop line is a little bit deflated with the double big lineup return. I’m not super worried; the Wolves have too much of an issue getting up and down the floor for two bigs to fight over every board, and I think that falls more under Gobert’s list of responsibilities.
POINTS: Mike Conley
Conley has been incredibly efficient in a Timberwolves uniform. But he’s also had his chances, even with Towns back in the lineup.
Conley is averaging around 13 points with Minnesota in 23 games. Even more encouraging however, has been his 47% from the field and 46.8% from three in his last eight games (since Towns returned on March 22). In that eight game span, he still averages just under six attempts per game from beyond the arc.
The marriage of efficiency and volume has resulted in Conley being one of the more profitable players in the league in the last seven games on their respective points over. He’s 5-2 on the over, with a 35% return. His odds are normally juiced pretty favorably (-110 on over 13.5 against San Antonio).
You can look at this one of two ways; with Anthony Edwards rebounding from his illness (he smashed his points over on Saturday), it could be smart to zig (Edwards is 5-2 on the UNDER in his last 7 at the peal of said illness). But Conley still takes 10 shots a game, and as long as his prop is set around 13.5 with favorable odds, it’s worth including in plays.
3-POINTERS: Karl-Anthony Towns
Towns is 4-3 on the under in his last seven games in three-pointers made. His prop against San Antonio was set at 1.5 with the over at -165.
The value isn’t always there, but Towns is shooting a blistering 43% from three since his return, and he’s not even completely rounded back into shape. I don’t need much more data on this one. It’s only a matter of time before a juiced prop of his comes through for a over/under of 2.5. Strike while the iron is hot.
3-Point Contest champion Karl-Anthony Towns' 29 points in the final round tonight were the most ever in a final round, breaking Devin Booker's record of 28 from 2018! pic.twitter.com/cbHwtXkjfv— NBA History (@NBAHistory) February 20, 2022