Playoff Game Preview #13: Wolves vs. Mavericks

For the first time in the 2024 NBA Playoffs, the Minnesota Timberwolves approached Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals against the Dallas Mavericks as favorites to win the series (-170). The Phoenix Suns (-130) were favored to beat Minnesota in the first round, and the Denver Nuggets (-205) were favored in the second round.

Despite Vegas listing the Timberwolves as underdogs throughout the postseason, they knocked the defending champions off in seven games and swept the Suns, complete with two elite scorers and one future Hall of Famer, in the first round. Once Denver was set packing after its 98-90 Game 7 loss, Minnesota became the team to beat in the Western Conference with all the momentum as the team rose to a place it hadn’t been since May 2004.

Additionally, the Wolves had home-court advantage in the Western Conference Finals. However, the Mavericks — who were four-point underdogs — ripped that advantage away from the ascending Wolves after their 108-105 Game 1 win on Wednesday night.

Minnesota desperately needs to even the series up at one piece in Game 2 on Friday before the series shifts to Dallas for the first time. Home-court advantage has already been lost, but the Wolves winning Game 2 would flip the WCF to a five-game series.

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Game Info

• Who: #3 Minnesota Timberwolves (0-1) vs. #5 Dallas Mavericks (1-0)
• When: Friday, May 24 at 7:30 PM CT
• Where: Target Center — Minneapolis, MN
• National TV: TNT, truTV (Kevin Harlan, Reggie Miller, Stan Van Gundy, Allie LaForce)
• Radio: KFAN FM 100.3, Wolves App, iHeart Radio
• Line: Wolves -5 | Total: 207.5 (courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
• Jerseys: Wolves (Classic Edition), Mavericks (City Edition)

NBA LockerVision

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Injury Report

Updated as of Thursday, May 23 at 6:00 PM

Minnesota

QUESTIONABLE:

• Mike Conley (right soleus strain)

Dallas

PROBABLE:

• Luka Dončić (right knee sprain; left ankle soreness)

OUT

• Olivier-Maxence Prosper (left ankle sprain)
• Maxi Kleber (right shoulder AC separation)

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What to Watch For

Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images

Limiting Dallas’ One-Two Punch

Game 1 was the perfect storm for the Mavericks.

Obviously, their entire (and I mean entire) offensive game plan is centered around Kyrie Irving and Luka Dončić. Everybody else in Head Coach Jason Kidd’s rotation thrives off the ball. Typically, Dallas’ role players earn their keep when the opposing defense collapses into the paint against its top offensive dyad, which allows the ball to either be kicked out to an open shooter or a roaming big/forward around the rim.

When defending two future Hall of Fame scorers — who can also beat you in the passing game — it’s essential that one of them has a slow game. We saw the Wolves do that successfully against the Suns. Typically, Kevin Durant was the primary scorer, while Devin Booker and Bradley Beal were largely held in check. Minnesota lived with Durant getting his points, and it worked well enough to beat the Suns in four games.

However, in Game 1 on Wednesday, Irving and Doničić combined for 63 points — only 14 less than the Wolves’ starting five as a whole — on 24 of 49 (49%) from the floor. Those numbers in themselves make it incredibly hard to beat Dallas, but it was when and where those gaudy point totals came from that was the harder pill to swallow in Game 1.

“He was being Ky, you know,” Kidd told the media after Game 1 when asked about Irving’s performance. “[He was] just picking his spots and using different places on the floor to attack. I thought he did a great job of helping everybody relax on the offensive end ... I though Ky was big for us in that first half and got us off to a good start. We were only down three [at halftime] and we just felt like we didn’t play well.”

Target Center was deafeningly loud after Jaden McDaniels already hit his third triple with 5:16 left in the first quarter, giving the Wolves a 15-8 lead.

As Kidd mentions above, the Mavericks needed someone to calm things down in the first half and offer a counterpunch to Minnesota’s loud start. Irving was the one to deliver. Through 20:12 minutes in the first half, the 32-year-old guard was already up to a game-high 24 points on 11 of 14 from the floor and two of two from the charity stripe. He also attempted just one three in the first half, which isn’t surprising as 49% of his shot attempts per game come from the mid-range in the playoffs this season, ranking in the 100th percentile, according to Cleaning the Glass.

In the second half, Kyrie was held to one of nine from the floor with six points, but that didn’t matter because Doničić — who had 14 points on six of 14 from the floor in the first half — erupted for 19 points in the second half on six of 12 shooting and two of four from deep.

It was the perfect storm for the Mavericks because one component of their duo set the tone and took over the first half, while the other kept things afloat once the Wolves’ defensive focus shifted slightly in the second half.

In many aspects, Irving and Dončić were unstoppable. Here are both of their matchup stats against the three most prevalent individual defenders in Game 1, courtesy of NBA.com:

Kyrie, when defended by...

• Anthony Edwards: 8 points | 4/7 FG | 33.9 partial poss. | 7:13 minutes
• McDaniels: 7 points | 3/4 FG | 15.1 partial poss. | 2:28 minutes
• Nickeil Alexander-Walker: 4 points | 1/4 FG | 10.8 partial poss. | 1:54 minutes

Luka, when defended by...

• McDaniels: 14 points | 6/14 FG | 43.3 partial poss. | 8:44 minutes
• Edwards: 8 points | 3/4 FG | 8.9 partial poss. | 1:26 minutes
• Kyle Anderson: 2 points | 1/2 FG | 8.7 partial poss. | 1:45 minutes

You may be asking yourself, was Kyrie and Luka’s domination a product of their inability to miss, or is it because of Minnesota’s defense? Well, it’s a mixture of both.

(Editor’s Note: If you are reading this on Apple News, please click here so you can view embedded videos important to the analysis, and enjoy the best overall reading experience.)

The Timberwolves defended most of Irving’s shot attempts well. Very seldom was there not an outstretched hand in his face. However, Uncle Drew is one of the best tough-shot makers over the last decade in the NBA, especially from within the arc, and he gave Minnesota’s fans, players, and coaches a textbook lesson on why.

Irving was able to sift and dice his way into the mid-range and paint far too easily. He relied on his incredible foot speed and shifty handles to put himself in favorable spots.

For Game 2, the Wolves must offer more resistance and try their best to prevent Kyrie from attacking downhill, even if that means coming off Dallas’ spotted-up shooters. Overall, it felt like Minnesota’s perimeter defenders weren’t quite as physical against Irving as they were, for example, against Jamal Murray in the second round.

Luka’s second-half domination was much more inevitable than Kyrie’s. True to form, Dončić was hitting ridiculously contested mid-range attempts and step-back triples. For the most part, Minnesota was playing great defense against the Ljubljana, Slovenia native, but there was nothing McDaniels, Edwards, or Alexander-Walker could do. Luka could find just enough daylight to get a high percentage look.

Doničić’s unstoppable uproar felt eerily similar to Nikola Jokić’s in Game 5 of the second round, where he hung 40 points on the Wolves, 17 of which came in the third quarter alone. The Wolves were essentially helpless in that game, and the same was true down the stretch against Luka on Wednesday night.

In an effort to mix up the looks, Minnesota’s coaching staff may look to insert Slow-Mo — whose offense was very productive in Game 1 — more frequently, especially if Doničić is taking over a stretch of the game.

In the regular season, Luka registered 16 points on six of 10 from the floor in 21.4 partial possessions against Anderson, according to NBA.com. Those aren’t great splits, but Kyle is big (6-foot-9, 230 pounds), which could — in theory — offer some productive resistance against Doničić, who loves to bang in the mid-range and use his side (6-foot-7, 230 pounds) to his advantage.

Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images

KAT and Ant Get-Back Game

To combat the elite shot-making from Irving and Dončić, the Wolves needed big nights from Towns and Edwards, but that never happened. No. 5 and No. 32 combined for 35 points on 12 of 36 (33.3%) from the floor and 7 of 21 (33.3%) from deep in Game 1. Off-nights happen. They are a standard part of the game, even for elite scorers. However, how Ant and KAT underperformed was more discouraging than their final line scores.

Towns went 3/10 from the paint. All night long, Dallas loaded up down low whenever KAT attacked downhill or posted up. On top of that, KAT simply missed most of the shots he was hitting in Game 7 against the Nuggets, where Karl finished with 23 points on 8/14 from the floor.

Minnesota looked more frequently down the stretch to get the Edison, New Jersey native the ball from beyond the arc. But that wasn’t the case early on. After the first quarter, KAT had only two points on 1/5 from the floor and 0/2 from deep. Dallas aggressively double-teamed Towns every time he touched the ball with his back to the basket. When that happens, I always say the Wolves should look to get him engaged in more pick-and-pop and horn sets, but that didn’t happen through most of the first half.

“We didn’t play with enough energy, just looked tired,” Towns told reporters postgame. “On top of that, that kind of approach, we just didn’t move as well as usually do. Defensively, we gotta get even more fastbreak points. That’s something we depend on. Just didn’t do enough today.”

Minnesota's coming off its Game 7 win on Sunday contributed to their lack of offensive energy in Game 1. Towns’ poor night in the offense is not all that alarming. The playoffs are all about adjustments, and the Wolves must figure out a way to generate easier shots for KAT in the flow of the offense.

Dallas got bigger at the trade deadline, acquiring Daniel Gafford from the Washington Wizards and P.J. Washington from the Charlotte Hornets. However, Minnesota’s coaching staff should still be able to find ways to combat that.

55% of the Wolves’ shot attempts in Game 1 came from behind the arc. They went 18/49 from three-point range, while Dallas went 6/25 from deep, but the Wolves still lost. It exemplified that shooting better from the range isn’t always going to lead to success. Simply put, the Wolves settled far too often, particularly Ant.

“Yeah, for sure. Y’all can see it; we were a step behind everybody, especially myself,” responded Edwards when asked if Game 7 vs. Denver played a part in Minnesota’s lack of energy in Game 1 vs. Dallas. “Kyrie got a transition layup from when I think we scored and he just outran me. I was just exhausted. So yeah, for sure. But we’ll be alright.”

Edwards took 16 total shot attempts, 12 of which were from three (he made five). Ant rarely took his defender off the dribble or aggressively attacked the closeout. It was evident that fatigue played a factor in that, but maybe Dallas’ rim deterrent Dereck Lively II lurking near the basket did as well. However, Lively — even though he is a great low-post defender and shot blocker — shouldn't affect Edwards to the point where he isn’t attacking into the lane with conviction.

Not only does an aggressive, down-hill-focused Ant bode well for him individually, but it also gets his teammate's open looks when the Atlanta, Georgia native blows by his primary defender and forces others to come in and collapse.

The Wolves only have one day off in between every game in this series. There isn’t much time for rest. However, hopefully, Edwards can get his legs back under him and return to the rising megastar that we’ve seen from him during these playoffs. He should have no issue putting up big scoring totals on decent splits against Derrick Jones Jr. and Josh Green.

Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images

Don’t Get Beat in the Paint

The Mavericks came out victorious against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the second round, primarily because of their size. Dallas outrebounded OKC by a total of 271-243 through all six games. In Game 5, the Thunder were outrebounded 46-33; in Game 6, they were outrebounded 47-31.

The Minneapolis native, Chet Holmgren (7-foot-1, 208 pounds) was the Thunder’s starting center for the playoffs. He’s tall and can reject shots, but lacks overall size, as do the Thunder as a whole. Now that OKC is in the off-season, they will likely shop for some more size — maybe starting caliber — so a repeat of their second-round exit as the first season doesn’t occur.

Inversely, the Timberwolves are one of the biggest teams in the NBA. We all know this. Yet they didn’t play like it in Game 1 against Dallas, and that can’t happen again.

Below are telling stats, which ultimately decided the outcome in Game 1:

Rebounds

• DAL: 48
• MIN: 40

Offensive Rebounds

• DAL: 11
• MIN: 10

Points in the paint

• DAL: 62
• MIN: 38

2-point splits

• DAL: 37/62 (59.7%) FG
• MIN: 20/40 (50%) FG

Splits from 0-4 feet

• DAL: 21/27 (77.8%)
• MIN: 14/25 (56%)

Splits from 4-14 feet

• DAL: 11/22 (50%)
• MIN: 4/10 (40%)

As they have done all season, the Wolves must rely heavily on their size and control the paint on both ends. If they don’t, the negative result is apparent. Getting beat in the paint on led Minnesota to cough up homecourt advantage. However, if most of the stats listed above can swing in the Wolves’ favor in Game 2, there should be no reason they don’t head to Dallas for games 3 and 4 with the series knotted up at 1-1.